Agricultural yields vary strongly depending on weather conditions. Generally speaking, walnut trees take about 4 years to enter into production and have a minimum life cycle of 30 years, which can go up to 70 years if conditions are good. We are using UC Davis for our average yield forecasts. They forecast an annual production of 6.5t/ha when fully grown in the 7th year. A well-managed modern day orchard can outpace these, especially when using highly productive varieties like Chandler. Our Turkish producers achieve yields of 8t/ha or more, which we use as our optimistic scenario. The pessimistic scenario assesses a freeze in the first year resulting in a complete replanting of the orchard and a disease that forces to prune 30% of the orchard to its minimum during the second year.